Insights

U.S. Launches New Strike on Houthi Radar Site in Yemen

Navanti’s Mohammed Albasha said: “If the strikes successfully targeted drone and missile manufacturing facilities, it could temporarily hinder Houthi capabilities … However, given their adaptability and quick recovery demonstrated throughout the prolonged conflict, the impact may be short-term.”

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U.S. firefight with Houthi gunmen heightens shipping risk in Red Sea

Mohammed albasha, a senior Middle East analyst at the Navanti a risk-assessment group said, The Houthis “know the Americans don’t want to escalate,” because of the Saudi-Yemeni negotiations. “They are in the sweet spot.” The movement, whose antipathy to Israel and the United States had been part of its ideology for decades, could decide to step up its confrontation with the U.S. after Sunday’s events, he added, including by targeting US Navy ships, like a destroyer.

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Live TV Interview

Mohammed Albasha, a Senior Middle East Subject Matter Expert at Navanti Group, participated in a live news show on Al Jazeera English. The interview focused on the consequences following a series of missile and drone attacks launched from areas controlled by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The attacks were directed towards vessels in the Red Sea.

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[Bulgarian] Recorded TV Interview

Navanti’s Mohammed Albasha, discussed the hijacking of Galaxy Leader ship in Yemen and explored strategies to secure the release of Bulgarian hostages, with Detelina Kalfova on Bulgarian National Television #БНТ.

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[Dutch] Met ‘afschrikking’ in het Rode Zeegebied kan Washington de Houthi’s juist in de kaart spelen

‘Maar daarmee zouden ze de Houthi’s alleen maar in de kaart spelen’, zegt #Jemen kenner Mohammed al-Basha, verbonden aan consultancy bureau Navanti Group. ‘Vergeet niet: de Houthi’s dromen ervan onder vuur te worden genomen door Israël of de VS. Internationaal krijgen ze dan erkenning als anti-imperialistische ‘verzetsbeweging’. En het zou de steun opleveren van gewone Jemenieten die zich van oudsher verenigen tegenover een gedeelde vijand.’

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[Arabic] هجمات الحوثيين ضد إسرائيل محاولة لكسب دور إقليمي بدون تهديد جدّي

قال كبير محللي الشرق الأوسط لدى مجموعة “نافانتي” الاستشارية الأميركية محمد الباشا إن “جماعة أنصار الله (الحوثيين) تسعى إلى تحقيق أهداف استراتيجية بمشاركتها في صراع إقليمي بما في ذلك ضمان النفوذ السياسي في اليمن والمنطقة”. وأوضح الباشا أن المتمردين يسعون “للحصول على اعتراف وشرعية كلاعبٍ مهم في الصراعات الإقليمية”، إضافة إلى “تجديد وحشد قاعدتهم” الشعبية. وأحد أهداف الحوثيين أيضًا، بحسب الباشا، “تعزيز موقفهم التفاوضي” مع السعودية التي يجرون معها منذ أشهر محادثات لتسوية النزاع في اليمن.

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The Houthis: inside the powerful militia’s enigmatic mindset

“The prevailing [Houthi] mindset is one of constant war, cultivated over two decades of conflict. Self-fulfilling prophecies work in their favour, leading to unexpected engagements such as fighting #Israel or targeting #Israeli-linked assets. Unforeseen drone and rocket exchanges with the US Navy and the Royal Navy have become a reality.” “The Houthis display a sense of euphoric hubris, viewing divine intervention and aligning themselves with history on their side,” Mohammed albasha, a senior Middle East analyst at NavantiGroup. Just last year, a Houthi-controlled court in Sana’a sentenced to prison three YouTubers for “inciting chaos” after they published mildly critical videos, suggesting the group work harder to fight corruption. “People are hesitant to speak out, making it challenging to discern their true sentiments,” Mr Al Basha said.

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Houthi missile hits US-owned ship off Yemen

Mohammed Albasha, senior Middle East analyst at the US-based Navanti Group consultancy, said the attack in the Gulf of Aden could signal a change in strategy by the Houthis. “With the US Navy and Royal Navy warships directing their firepower primarily to the Red Sea, I expect a potential shift, where the Houthis redirect their attention to vessels in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea,” he said.

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[Arabic and French] Recorded TV Interview

Yémen: Navanti’s Mohammed albasha comment les rebelles houthis font du cargo “israélien” capturé une attraction touristique

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US likely to go on offense after Houthi attacks in Red Sea, analysts say

Mohammed albasha, senior Middle East analyst for the Virginia-based Navanti Group said direct attacks on the Houthis risks galvanizing support for the group in Yemen, said The Houthis control Yemen’s capital of Sanaa and much of the northwest coast along the Red Sea. They’ve survived a nearly nine-year bombardment campaign by Saudi Arabia and allied countries, and the militants are confident in their ability to withstand U.S. barrages, al-Basha said. “The Houthis’ string of victories has instilled in them a sense of euphoric hubris, perceiving divine intervention and an alignment with history on their side,” al-Basha said.

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Shipping firm Maersk suspends passage through Red Sea amid Houthi attacks

Mohammed Al-Basha, a senior Middle East analyst for the US-based Navanti Group, said the attack on the Al-Jasrah showed that ships carrying goods for Israel or other nations could be potential targets. “A significant concern stems from the Houthis’ potential inability to distinguish between different vessels, leading to worries about accidental targeting, including warships,”

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Who are the rebels costing billions in trade and threatening to escalate conflict across the Middle East?

Mohammed Albasha of the Navanti Group said he doesn’t expect the Houthis will back down soon. And he warned, “Although the U.S. Navy has thwarted all attacks so far, it could potentially push the Houthis toward contemplating a more coordinated swarm offensive in the Red or Arabian Sea.” He pointed out that Saudi Arabia’s war with the Houthis failed to silence them. Attacks on Houthi installations, like drone launch pads and its Special Navy Forces stationed in Hajjah and Hudaydah, may have limited impact, he said, because many have, “previously incurred substantial damage due to the Saudi led aerial bombardment campaign from 2015 to 2022.”

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The War in Yemen - The Unbeautiful South

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by The Economist on the war in Yemen.

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For the first time, an alleged terrorist has broadcast a confession in real time on Facebook Live

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, was cited by Caitlin Dewey and Sarah Parnass of The Washington Post on live-streaming of terror attacks.

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Yemen in Focus: Allies turn rivals on strategic Socotra island

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by the London-based ‘The New Arab’ on the crisis in Socotra Archipelago.

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Quiet Support for Saudis Entangles U.S. in Yemen

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by By Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt, The New York Times on the how the quiet support for Saudis entangles U.S. in Yemen.

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[Dutch] Wending in oorlog Jemen brengt einde niet dichterbij

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by NRC Handelsblad, a daily evening newspaper published in the Netherlands.

“De Houthi’s hebben terrein gewonnen en snel de leegte opgevuld die de verdeelde en in ballingschap verblijvende regering had laten ontstaan”, zegt Mohammed Albasha, Jemendeskundige van Navanti, een adviesbureau in Washington.

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[French] Navire saisi au Yémen : risque d'escalade en mer Rouge

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was quoted by L’Orient-Le Jour, a leading French-language daily newspaper in Lebanon.

La capture du navire intervient dans un contexte d’escalade générale dans la guerre au Yémen, et pour le chercheur Mohammed Al Basha, ce rare incident maritime est “le signe d’une escalade politique et militaire contre la coalition”. “Observateurs et responsables politiques craignent depuis longtemps que la guerre au Yémen ne déborde sur la mer Rouge et ne déstabilise les voies de navigation essentielles”, pour le transport maritime international, observe ce spécialiste de la péninsule arabique au centre de réflexion Navanti Group.

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[German] KRIEG IM JEMEN: Das Ende des Huthi-Vormarsches

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a daily published newspaper in Frankfurt.

Mehrere Beobachter berichten jetzt übereinstimmend, die Zeit sei vorbei, in der Deeskalation über allem stehe – auch in Washington. “Viele amerikanische Regierungsfunktionäre und politische Entscheidungsträger sind zu der Auffassung gelangt, dass militärischer Druck das letzte Mittel ist, um die Houthis wieder an den Verhandlungstisch zu bringen“, sagt Mohammed Albasha, Jemen-Experte von der in den Vereinigten Staaten ansässigen Beratungsfirma Navanti Group.

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[Arabic] مدنيو اليمن يدفعون ثمن التصعيد: أهداف سهلة لهجمات انتقامية

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by By العربي الجديد, a London Arabic daily newspaper.

أكد محمد باشا، وهو كبير محللي شؤون شبه الجزيرة لدى مجموعة “نافانتي” الاستشارية الأميركية، أن المدنيين هم الضحية الرئيسية لأي تصعيد عسكري على الساحة اليمنية لأطراف الصراع والقوى الداعمة لهم بصورة مباشرة أو غير مباشرة، والذي يأخذ منحى تصاعديا منذ بداية 2022، على الرغم من تواصل الإدانات الصادرة عن المجتمع الدولي والإقليم المحيط.

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Libya Could Be Putin’s Trump Card

Robert Uniacke, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Navanti Group, wrote an expert’s point of view on current events in Libya. Uniacke argues that Libya could be Putin’s tump card as global oil markets have already felt the pinch of Libyan oil shutdowns helped along by Russian mercenaries.

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Russia has advantages but faces challenges in the battle for Ukraine’s east

John Arterbury, Africa and Europe Project Manager, at Navanti Group, was interviewed by the Los Angeles Times.

Artebury said that the Russians are also benefiting from maneuvering on territory controlled by Moscow-backed separatists who claimed roughly a third of the Donbas region before the wider war began. Adding that Russia won’t have to deal with the supply-line setbacks it faced in the initial phase of the invasion, when it had amassed as many as 190,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders. “They can equip directly from the separatist and border areas, and wouldn’t have to route them through Belarus and other areas,” he reported. “They have a shorter head-to-tail logistic supply line, which would presumably allow them more cohesive advances,” he said

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Community-Based Armed Groups: A Problem or Solution?

Rida Lyammouri, a senior Sahel advisor at Navanti Group co-authored a publication for the United States Institute of Peace, an American federal institution tasked with promoting conflict resolution and prevention worldwide.

The publication titled, “Community-Based Armed Groups: A Problem or Solution?” explores how the presence of Community-Based Armed Groups (CBAGs), a subset of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) raises issues that force a rethink of local implementation of peacebuilding processes

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Yemen: Diplomats push for extension of truce as deadline nears

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by Middle East Eye on diplomats push for extension of truce in Yemen.

“The Houthis still harbour military aspirations, while the Saudis and Emiratis no longer have the military appetite to continue the fight, and the Houthis are well aware of that,” Mohammed al-Basha, a senior Arabian peninsula analyst at the Navanti Group, told MEE. “Yemen has entered the stalemate phase of no peace and no war,” Basha adds.

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The Future of Wagner’s Adventurism in Africa: Clues From Prigozhin

Opinion and analysis by Robert Uniacke, a Middle East  and North Africa Consultant at the Navanti Group, an analytics firm advising US government and commercial clients.

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NORTHERN SYRIA’S ANTI-ISLAMIC STATE COALITION HAS AN ARAB PROBLEM

Commentary by Dan Wilkofsky and Khalid Fatah. Dan is a Syria Analyst at the Navanti Group LLC, a commercial research company focused on development and stabilization issues. Dan is a former editor at Syria Direct. Khalid is a Kurdish-Middle East analyst at the Navanti Group. He is also a Voice of America (VOA – Kurdish service) TV and radio reporter, and Previously, Khalid wrote for the newspaper al-Itehad and Khabour magazine, where he focused on Iraqi Kurdish issues.

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The Islamic State in Southern Syria

Commentary by Aaron Y. Zelin and Oula Alrifai. Oula is a Syria Analyst at Navanti Group where she focuses on humanitarian and development projects in Syria.

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Escape from Timbuktu: Foreigners Flee as Mali’s Rebels Declare Independence

Andrew Lebovich, an analyst with the Navanti Group who focuses on Sahelian issues, said: “It’s extremely difficult to evaluate the claims and reports coming out of Timbuktu.” But “multiple sources cite eyewitnesses who say they saw one or several AQIM leaders.” As civilians fleeing Timbuktu impart fresh accounts of what is happening in the desert city, the number of claims are steadily growing.

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Yemen Ship Seizure Flashes Warning For Red Sea

Mohammed al-Basha, senior Arabian peninsula analyst at Navanti Group, said the Rwabee’s capture looked like an “escalation” by the rebels. “The seizure of the UAE flagged vessel signals both a political and military escalation to the Saudi-led coalition,” he told AFP. “Observers and policymakers have long feared that the war in Yemen could spill over into the Red Sea and destabilise vital shipping lanes.”

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Carnage escalates, options for U.S. diminish in new round of Yemeni civil war attacks

Friday edition of The Los Angeles Times quotes a Navanti analyst: But with the Houthis unwilling to meet even with the U.N. envoy, that balance may be hard to achieve, said Mohammad Basha, a Yemen expert at the U.S.-based Navanti Group, a consultancy. The path for peace and stability in Yemen seems far-fetched at this stage,” he said. “Houthi leadership had gone on the record and said they will not stop military operations until every inch of Yemen is liberated.”

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[Arabic] هل يهدد الهجوم الحوثي "الملاذ الآمن" الذي تقدمه الإمارات؟

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by FRANCE 24’s Arabic channel.

ويرى كبير المحللين اليمنيين في شركة الأبحاث “نافانتي غروب” الأميركية محمّد الباشا أنه “على الرغم من أن أبو ظبي قامت بسحب معداتها العسكرية من اليمن، إلا أن أنصار الله (الحوثيين) يربطون العمليات العسكرية لألوية العمالقة في شبوة (..) بالإمارات التي لعبت دورا رئيسيا في تشكيل وتدريب وتسليح هذه القوات”.

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[Spanish] La guerra en Yemen: fuerzas combatientes agotadas y el fantasma de una nueva partición del país

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was quoted by Infobae, a Spanish news website based in Argentina.

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Foreign Aid Challenges in Yemen

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by Le Monde on foreign aid challenges in Yemen.

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Could the Coronavirus Put an End to the War in Yemen?

“Could the Coronavirus Put an End to the War in Yemen?” by Charlotte Kamin, Arabian Peninsula analyst was originally published by Just Security.

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Radicals’ dominance in Idlib increases risk of tragedy

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by James Snell, The Arab Weekly on how the radical’s dominance in Idlib increases risk of tragedy.

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Syrian Rebels Are Using Snapchat to Sell and Show-Off Their Weapons

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by Ben Sullivan of VICE on the war in Syria and the usage of social media tools such as Snapchat.

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ISIS’ Scorched Earth: Visual Confirmation of Destruction in the Shaer Field

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, writes about the intricate local power dynamics surrounding the Sheer Field, Syria.

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The Yemen Exchange - An Intensive Online Course on Yemen

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, spoke on the status and activities of non-state armed groups currently active in Yemen’s civil war at the fifth Yemen Exchange conference, hosted by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, was held online between May 11-15, 2020.

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A New Yemen Model:

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, spoke at AEI on the situation in Yemen.

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A Tree Grows in Karabakh

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, writes about the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic he visited. Once home to a patchwork of Armenians, Azeris, and nomadic Kurds, a vicious, ethnically driven war in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse technically leaves Azerbaijan in control; but in practice, the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, is headed by Armenians.

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Middle East and North Africa Democratization Seminar

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, spoke as a panelist for USMCU on Case Studies and Regional Perspectives.

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To destroy Islamic State, we must follow it into the desert

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, writes about how after Raqqa’s fall, the Islamic State retreated to Syria’s vast and overlooked Deir Ezzor province where it was already well entrenched. This arid stretch of eastern Syria straddling the Euphrates river valley had for too long failed to get the attention from policymakers it deserved.

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YEMEN'S BATTLEGROUND SHIFTS IN FAVOR OF IRAN-BACKED HOUTHIS

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by the Wall Street Journal on recent military developments in Yemen. He stated that recent moves by the Saudi-led coalition were a sign that the “coalition is becoming more realistic and signaling that they’re going to pull back to where they have a better defensive line.” Mr. Albasha pointed to open-source satellite images that suggest Saudi Arabia was reducing its military footprint.

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IS YEMEN'S WAR MOVING TO A 'GRUDGING ACCEPTANCE' OF THE HOUTHIS?

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by the Middle East Eye (MEE) on recent developments in Yemen. He stated,” The UAE is slowly but surely disengaging from Yemen and the Saudis have reduced their military footprint inside the country,” Mohammed Albasha. MEE added: Albasha shared satellite imagery, which he claims show the coalition is removing heavy military equipment and shuttering bases as evidence that both nations are “trying to extricate themselves from the protracted conflict”.

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