Insights

Navanti’s Mohammed Albasha appeared Live on CBS News to discuss U.S. strikes on Iran-backed militias inside Syria’s Deir Ezzor and Iraq’s Anbar in response to the attack on American troops in Jordan. Watch the full segment starting at 10:24.

Mohammed albasha, a senior Middle East analyst at the Navanti a risk-assessment group said, The Houthis “know the Americans don’t want to escalate,” because of the Saudi-Yemeni negotiations. “They are in the sweet spot.” The movement, whose antipathy to Israel and the United States had been part of its ideology for decades, could decide to step up its confrontation with the U.S. after Sunday’s events, he added, including by targeting US Navy ships, like a destroyer.

Mohammed Al-Basha, a Yemen expert for the US-based Navanti research group, said staple goods have become more expensive during Ramadan in areas controlled by Yemen’s internationally recognised government. The price hikes are “affected by the ongoing Red Sea crisis” but also linked to higher demand during Ramadan, reduced humanitarian assistance and a worsening economy, Basha said.

“Fishing communities along Yemen’s Red Sea coast in Hodeidah and Taiz will be impacted by the contamination,” said Mohammed al-Basha with U.S. analytics company Navanti Group. This could lead to lower catches and damage to livelihoods.

Navanti’s Mohammed Albasha said: “If the strikes successfully targeted drone and missile manufacturing facilities, it could temporarily hinder Houthi capabilities … However, given their adaptability and quick recovery demonstrated throughout the prolonged conflict, the impact may be short-term.”

“The Houthis embody a triumphant mindset, forged through a series of victories over two decades”, says Mohammed Al-Basha, a Middle East expert with the Virginia-based consultancy Navanti. “Demonstrating resilience from 2015 to 2022, they effectively thwarted the Saudi-led coalition’s attempt to reinstate the internationally recognised government in Sana’a.”

Mohammed Albasha, a Senior Middle East Subject Matter Expert at Navanti Group, participated in a live news show on Al Jazeera English. The interview focused on the consequences following a series of missile and drone attacks launched from areas controlled by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The attacks were directed towards vessels in the Red Sea.

Navanti’s Mohammed Albasha, discussed the hijacking of Galaxy Leader ship in Yemen and explored strategies to secure the release of Bulgarian hostages, with Detelina Kalfova on Bulgarian National Television #БНТ.

“During a time of economic and fiscal strain in Houthi-controlled regions of northern Yemen, statements from Houthi leaders underscore their increasing frustration with Saudi Arabia and the UAE” says Mohammed al-Basha, senior Middle East analyst for the US-based risk analysis firm Navanti Group.

When Houthi fighters seized Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in 2014, they inherited an array of weaponry, including North Korean and Soviet-era scud missiles, Soviet-era surface-to-air missiles, and Chinese anti-ship missiles, said Mohammed Albasha, a senior Middle East analyst at the Navanti Group.

Mohammed Albasha, a Senior Middle East Expert at Navanti Group, told Spain’s El Pais daily newspaper: “The modus operandi remains the same: small wooden boats, historically used for fishing and transporting goods, [are now being] used to transport illicit weapons”

As one Yemeni analyst, Mohammed al-Basha of the private consultancy Navanti, put it to Vox, “That’s the million-dollar question.”  As Basha sees it, the strikes in the Red Sea allow the Houthis to “disrupt economic activity, extract political concessions, and bolster their standing as defenders of Palestinians and Yemenis. These motivations would likely persist regardless of ceasefires elsewhere.”

But as destabilizing as the recent strikes are on commercial shipping, Mohammed al-Basha, senior Middle East analyst for the US-based risk analysis firm Navanti Group points to even worse possible scenarios. “While a coordinated international effort involving the US, UK, German, Italian, French and Indian navies works to counter the Houthi threat of Iranian-supplied explosive unmanned surface or underwater vessels, a successful strike on an American frigate would be catastrophic,” says al-Basha. “As dire as current circumstances appear, the consequences would be exponentially worse if American sailors are killed.”

“North Yemen is becoming like North Korea when it comes to firing rockets over the seas,” said Mohammed al-Basha, a Yemen and Middle East expert at Navanti Group. “It’s going to be a long-term issue for not just us, but for the world.”

 قال محمد الباشا ، كبير محللي الشرق الأوسط لدى مجموعة نافانتي   إنه رغم “الاختراقات التي حققتها المفاوضات” مع السعودية، والتي لعبت فيها سلطنة عُمان دورا مهما خلال الفترة السابقة، فإن “التوترات الإقليمية تلقي بظلالها على فرص السلام في اليمن”. وربط الباشا بين مسار السلام في اليمن بانتهاء الحرب في غزة

“La tratta dall’Iran allo Yemen con queste imbarcazioni va avanti almeno dal 2013”, spiega al Foglio Mohammed Albasha, senior analyst per il medio oriente del Navanti Group. Negli anni, gli americani che pattugliano l’area hanno intercettato una ventina di carichi. “Ma visti i numeri, si ritiene che la quantità di armi giunta a destinazione sia mol- to più elevata”, dice l’esperto.

‘Maar daarmee zouden ze de Houthi’s alleen maar in de kaart spelen’, zegt #Jemen kenner Mohammed al-Basha, verbonden aan consultancy bureau Navanti Group. ‘Vergeet niet: de Houthi’s dromen ervan onder vuur te worden genomen door Israël of de VS. Internationaal krijgen ze dan erkenning als anti-imperialistische ‘verzetsbeweging’. En het zou de steun opleveren van gewone Jemenieten die zich van oudsher verenigen tegenover een gedeelde vijand.’

قال كبير محللي الشرق الأوسط لدى مجموعة “نافانتي” الاستشارية الأميركية محمد الباشا إن “جماعة أنصار الله (الحوثيين) تسعى إلى تحقيق أهداف استراتيجية بمشاركتها في صراع إقليمي بما في ذلك ضمان النفوذ السياسي في اليمن والمنطقة”. وأوضح الباشا أن المتمردين يسعون “للحصول على اعتراف وشرعية كلاعبٍ مهم في الصراعات الإقليمية”، إضافة إلى “تجديد وحشد قاعدتهم” الشعبية. وأحد أهداف الحوثيين أيضًا، بحسب الباشا، “تعزيز موقفهم التفاوضي” مع السعودية التي يجرون معها منذ أشهر محادثات لتسوية النزاع في اليمن.

“The prevailing [Houthi] mindset is one of constant war, cultivated over two decades of conflict. Self-fulfilling prophecies work in their favour, leading to unexpected engagements such as fighting #Israel or targeting #Israeli-linked assets. Unforeseen drone and rocket exchanges with the US Navy and the Royal Navy have become a reality.” “The Houthis display a sense of euphoric hubris, viewing divine intervention and aligning themselves with history on their side,” Mohammed albasha, a senior Middle East analyst at NavantiGroup. Just last year, a Houthi-controlled court in Sana’a sentenced to prison three YouTubers for “inciting chaos” after they published mildly critical videos, suggesting the group work harder to fight corruption. “People are hesitant to speak out, making it challenging to discern their true sentiments,” Mr Al Basha said.

Mohammed Albasha, senior Middle East analyst at the US-based Navanti Group consultancy, said the attack in the Gulf of Aden could signal a change in strategy by the Houthis. “With the US Navy and Royal Navy warships directing their firepower primarily to the Red Sea, I expect a potential shift, where the Houthis redirect their attention to vessels in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea,” he said.

Yémen: Navanti’s Mohammed albasha comment les rebelles houthis font du cargo “israélien” capturé une attraction touristique

Mohammed albasha, senior Middle East analyst for the Virginia-based Navanti Group said direct attacks on the Houthis risks galvanizing support for the group in Yemen, said The Houthis control Yemen’s capital of Sanaa and much of the northwest coast along the Red Sea. They’ve survived a nearly nine-year bombardment campaign by Saudi Arabia and allied countries, and the militants are confident in their ability to withstand U.S. barrages, al-Basha said. “The Houthis’ string of victories has instilled in them a sense of euphoric hubris, perceiving divine intervention and an alignment with history on their side,” al-Basha said.

Mohammed Al-Basha, a senior Middle East analyst for the US-based Navanti Group, said the attack on the Al-Jasrah showed that ships carrying goods for Israel or other nations could be potential targets. “A significant concern stems from the Houthis’ potential inability to distinguish between different vessels, leading to worries about accidental targeting, including warships,”

Mohammed Albasha of the Navanti Group said he doesn’t expect the Houthis will back down soon. And he warned, “Although the U.S. Navy has thwarted all attacks so far, it could potentially push the Houthis toward contemplating a more coordinated swarm offensive in the Red or Arabian Sea.” He pointed out that Saudi Arabia’s war with the Houthis failed to silence them. Attacks on Houthi installations, like drone launch pads and its Special Navy Forces stationed in Hajjah and Hudaydah, may have limited impact, he said, because many have, “previously incurred substantial damage due to the Saudi led aerial bombardment campaign from 2015 to 2022.”

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by The Economist on the war in Yemen.

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, was cited by Caitlin Dewey and Sarah Parnass of The Washington Post on live-streaming of terror attacks.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by the London-based ‘The New Arab’ on the crisis in Socotra Archipelago.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by By Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt, The New York Times on the how the quiet support for Saudis entangles U.S. in Yemen.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by NRC Handelsblad, a daily evening newspaper published in the Netherlands.

“De Houthi’s hebben terrein gewonnen en snel de leegte opgevuld die de verdeelde en in ballingschap verblijvende regering had laten ontstaan”, zegt Mohammed Albasha, Jemendeskundige van Navanti, een adviesbureau in Washington.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was quoted by L’Orient-Le Jour, a leading French-language daily newspaper in Lebanon.

La capture du navire intervient dans un contexte d’escalade générale dans la guerre au Yémen, et pour le chercheur Mohammed Al Basha, ce rare incident maritime est “le signe d’une escalade politique et militaire contre la coalition”. “Observateurs et responsables politiques craignent depuis longtemps que la guerre au Yémen ne déborde sur la mer Rouge et ne déstabilise les voies de navigation essentielles”, pour le transport maritime international, observe ce spécialiste de la péninsule arabique au centre de réflexion Navanti Group.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a daily published newspaper in Frankfurt.

Mehrere Beobachter berichten jetzt übereinstimmend, die Zeit sei vorbei, in der Deeskalation über allem stehe – auch in Washington. “Viele amerikanische Regierungsfunktionäre und politische Entscheidungsträger sind zu der Auffassung gelangt, dass militärischer Druck das letzte Mittel ist, um die Houthis wieder an den Verhandlungstisch zu bringen“, sagt Mohammed Albasha, Jemen-Experte von der in den Vereinigten Staaten ansässigen Beratungsfirma Navanti Group.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by By العربي الجديد, a London Arabic daily newspaper.

أكد محمد باشا، وهو كبير محللي شؤون شبه الجزيرة لدى مجموعة “نافانتي” الاستشارية الأميركية، أن المدنيين هم الضحية الرئيسية لأي تصعيد عسكري على الساحة اليمنية لأطراف الصراع والقوى الداعمة لهم بصورة مباشرة أو غير مباشرة، والذي يأخذ منحى تصاعديا منذ بداية 2022، على الرغم من تواصل الإدانات الصادرة عن المجتمع الدولي والإقليم المحيط.

Robert Uniacke, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Navanti Group, wrote an expert’s point of view on current events in Libya. Uniacke argues that Libya could be Putin’s tump card as global oil markets have already felt the pinch of Libyan oil shutdowns helped along by Russian mercenaries.

John Arterbury, Africa and Europe Project Manager, at Navanti Group, was interviewed by the Los Angeles Times.

Artebury said that the Russians are also benefiting from maneuvering on territory controlled by Moscow-backed separatists who claimed roughly a third of the Donbas region before the wider war began. Adding that Russia won’t have to deal with the supply-line setbacks it faced in the initial phase of the invasion, when it had amassed as many as 190,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders. “They can equip directly from the separatist and border areas, and wouldn’t have to route them through Belarus and other areas,” he reported. “They have a shorter head-to-tail logistic supply line, which would presumably allow them more cohesive advances,” he said

Rida Lyammouri, a senior Sahel advisor at Navanti Group co-authored a publication for the United States Institute of Peace, an American federal institution tasked with promoting conflict resolution and prevention worldwide.

The publication titled, “Community-Based Armed Groups: A Problem or Solution?” explores how the presence of Community-Based Armed Groups (CBAGs), a subset of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) raises issues that force a rethink of local implementation of peacebuilding processes

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by Middle East Eye on diplomats push for extension of truce in Yemen.

“The Houthis still harbour military aspirations, while the Saudis and Emiratis no longer have the military appetite to continue the fight, and the Houthis are well aware of that,” Mohammed al-Basha, a senior Arabian peninsula analyst at the Navanti Group, told MEE. “Yemen has entered the stalemate phase of no peace and no war,” Basha adds.

Opinion and analysis by Robert Uniacke, a Middle East  and North Africa Consultant at the Navanti Group, an analytics firm advising US government and commercial clients.

Commentary by Dan Wilkofsky and Khalid Fatah. Dan is a Syria Analyst at the Navanti Group LLC, a commercial research company focused on development and stabilization issues. Dan is a former editor at Syria Direct. Khalid is a Kurdish-Middle East analyst at the Navanti Group. He is also a Voice of America (VOA – Kurdish service) TV and radio reporter, and Previously, Khalid wrote for the newspaper al-Itehad and Khabour magazine, where he focused on Iraqi Kurdish issues.

Commentary by Aaron Y. Zelin and Oula Alrifai. Oula is a Syria Analyst at Navanti Group where she focuses on humanitarian and development projects in Syria.

Andrew Lebovich, an analyst with the Navanti Group who focuses on Sahelian issues, said: “It’s extremely difficult to evaluate the claims and reports coming out of Timbuktu.” But “multiple sources cite eyewitnesses who say they saw one or several AQIM leaders.” As civilians fleeing Timbuktu impart fresh accounts of what is happening in the desert city, the number of claims are steadily growing.

Mohammed al-Basha, senior Arabian peninsula analyst at Navanti Group, said the Rwabee’s capture looked like an “escalation” by the rebels. “The seizure of the UAE flagged vessel signals both a political and military escalation to the Saudi-led coalition,” he told AFP. “Observers and policymakers have long feared that the war in Yemen could spill over into the Red Sea and destabilise vital shipping lanes.”

Friday edition of The Los Angeles Times quotes a Navanti analyst: But with the Houthis unwilling to meet even with the U.N. envoy, that balance may be hard to achieve, said Mohammad Basha, a Yemen expert at the U.S.-based Navanti Group, a consultancy. The path for peace and stability in Yemen seems far-fetched at this stage,” he said. “Houthi leadership had gone on the record and said they will not stop military operations until every inch of Yemen is liberated.”

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by FRANCE 24’s Arabic channel.

ويرى كبير المحللين اليمنيين في شركة الأبحاث “نافانتي غروب” الأميركية محمّد الباشا أنه “على الرغم من أن أبو ظبي قامت بسحب معداتها العسكرية من اليمن، إلا أن أنصار الله (الحوثيين) يربطون العمليات العسكرية لألوية العمالقة في شبوة (..) بالإمارات التي لعبت دورا رئيسيا في تشكيل وتدريب وتسليح هذه القوات”.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was quoted by Infobae, a Spanish news website based in Argentina.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by Le Monde on foreign aid challenges in Yemen.

“Could the Coronavirus Put an End to the War in Yemen?” by Charlotte Kamin, Arabian Peninsula analyst was originally published by Just Security.

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by James Snell, The Arab Weekly on how the radical’s dominance in Idlib increases risk of tragedy.

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, was interviewed by Ben Sullivan of VICE on the war in Syria and the usage of social media tools such as Snapchat.

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, writes about the intricate local power dynamics surrounding the Sheer Field, Syria.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, spoke on the status and activities of non-state armed groups currently active in Yemen’s civil war at the fifth Yemen Exchange conference, hosted by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, was held online between May 11-15, 2020.

Mohammed Albasha, Communication and Client Engagement Manager at Navanti Group, spoke at AEI on the situation in Yemen.

John Arterbury, Project Manager at Navanti Group, writes about the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic he visited. Once home to a patchwork of Armenians, Azeris, and nomadic Kurds, a vicious, ethnically driven war in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse technically leaves Azerbaijan in control; but in practice, the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, is headed by Armenians.