Spot Report: Second Burkinabé coup opens door to further unrest, Russian influence by Emily Levinson
Spot Report: Second Burkinabé coup opens door to further unrest, Russian influence by Emily Levinson
On 30th September 2022, Burkina Faso faced its second coup this year when Capt Ibrahim Traoré overthrew Lt Col Paul-Henri Damiba, who had himself ousted President Roch Kaboré and his elected government in January 2022. Traoré attributed the coup to Damiba’s failure to improve security – the same reason Damiba gave for overthrowing Kaboré. Traoré quickly suspended the constitution and political and civil activities; closed Burkina’s borders; and implemented a curfew. Despite his efforts to maintain order, unrest quickly escalated. Damiba refused to cede power, and Traoré openly accused France of conspiring to help Damiba remain in power, leading civilians to block roads into the capital and attack the French embassy. After assuring the security of himself and his allies in the military, Damiba agreed to step down on 02 October; he subsequently left Burkina for Togo, clearing the way for Traoré to assume power. An ECOWAS delegation met with coup leaders on 04 October in a bid to ensure that the timeline for return to civilian rule established by Damiba’s junta is respected. Following the meeting, Traoré was appointed president of Burkina Faso. Traoré has affirmed his intention to return Burkina to civilian rule by 2024, which was also a condition set by Damiba for his resignation. However, changes in the interim could reshape Burkina’s domestic landscape and international position. News sources have speculated Traoré’s “willingness to work with new partners” on security is foreshadowing deeper ties with Russia. Videos published over the weekend showed soldiers and civilians waving Russian flags. Wagner Group creator Evgueni Prigojine has also publicly voiced his support for the coup leaders and implicitly offered Wagner mercenaries’ assistance. Wagner mercenaries began operating in Mali after the country underwent two coups and broke ties with France. Burkina could be preparing to follow suit. However, Mali’s experience indicates this may deepen, rather than alleviate, Burkina’s security crisis.